www.apjph.comwww.apjph.com
...
Original research
Ref Number: APCP-RP-057

Group-based Trajectory Modelling and Interpretable Machine Learning to Identify Factors Associated with Neurodevelopmental Trajectories in Preterm Infants

Kun Dai¹, Lu Zheng¹, Suqing Wang¹
1- School of Nursing, Wuhan University, China
Corresponding Author: Kun Dai (2024103070003@whu.edu.cn)
Abstract Body
Objective: Preterm infants are vulnerable to neurodevelopmental impairments due to immature brain development. Early identification of developmental heterogeneity and key perinatal predictors is essential for timely intervention and improved longterm outcomes. Methods: Preterm infants born at Tongji Hospital from July 2022 to March 2025 were included. Clinical data were collected during hospitalization, and developmental follow-ups were conducted at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months corrected age. Group-Based Trajectory Modelling (GBTM) identified neurodevelopmental trajectories. Six machine-learning models were constructed to predict trajectory categories, with performance evaluated by ROC curves and SHAP interpretation. Results: A total of 509 infants who completed all follow-ups were analyzed. Two trajectories were identified: Catch-up (46.56%) and Stable (53.44%). The Catch-up group showed a marked increase in developmental quotient (DQ) from 87 .12 to 103.36, while the Stable group increased from 106.02 to 109.91 over 3–12 months. The Random Forest model performed best (training AUC 0.991; validation AUC 0.916) and was selected as the final model. SHAP revealed seven key predictors: gestational age, caregiver age, caregiver experience, intracranial haemorrhage, hyperbilirubinemia, birth length, and caregiver education. Higher gestational age, absence of complications, birth length 40–45 cm, and caregivers aged 25–35 years with prior experience and higher education were associated with the Stable trajectory . Conclusion: Preterm infants exhibit two neurodevelopmental patterns: Stable and Catch-up. Gestational age and caregiver characteristics strongly influence trajectories, emphasizing the importance of early risk stratification and family-centered developmental support.
Keywords: Machine learning; Neurodevelopmental trajectories; Gestational age
Presentation Type: Original research
Disclaimer: The Views and opinions expressed in the articles are of the authors and not of the journal.
Editor-In-Chief
Journal Office
Mid City Hospital, 3-A Shadman II
Jail Road, Lahore ,Pakistan
Managing Editor
Dr. Intan Juliana Abd Hamid
Support & Help
Assistant Editor
Dr. Sadia Shabbir Hussain
Support & Help
Digital Content Editor
Dr. Khalid Masud
Administrator